Harris erases Trump’s economic lead: New CNBC/Generation Lab poll

Young Americans don’t seem to hold Vice President Kamala Harris responsible for what many believe is a worsening US economy under the Biden-Harris administration, according to a new poll from CNBC and Generation Lab.

The most recent quarterly Youth & Money poll, conducted after Biden left the race in July, finds that 69% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 34 believe the economy is getting worse under President Joe Biden.

But they also think the candidate best able to improve the economy is Harris, not Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.

Harris was considered the best candidate for the economy by 41% of respondents, while 40% chose Trump and another 19% said the economy would do better under someone else, such as third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. .

The results amount to a seven-point swing in favor of Democrats on the economy since CNBC asked the same question in its May poll on youth and money. At the time, only 34% of respondents believed Biden, then the presumptive Democratic nominee, was the best candidate to boost the economy, with 40% choosing Trump and 25% saying Kennedy.

The shift in support for Harris is even wider among respondents overall. If the presidential election were held today, the latest poll found Harris holding a 12-point lead over Trump among young Americans, 46% to 34%, while 21% said they would vote for either Kennedy or another candidate. .

Three months ago, the same poll found Trump and Biden effectively tied, with 36% for Biden and 35% for Trump, and 29% planning to vote for Kennedy.

This 10% increase in support for Harris today, from where Biden was in May, is all the more notable because of the importance of the economy to young Americans’ voting choices.

According to new CNBC polling data, the “economy and cost of living” were cited more than any other issue when respondents were asked what would influence their decisions about who to vote for, with 66% of respondents who mention it in their top three. In second place at 34% was “access to abortion and reproductive rights,” followed by “gun violence/control” at 26%.

However, these results also contain warning signs for Harris and the Democratic Party.

To win the White House, Harris will likely need to do even better among young people in November than her current 12-point lead in the CNBC and Generation Lab poll.

With less than 90 days until Election Day on November 5, these new results could have significant implications for a presidential race that was upended by Biden’s decision to drop out.

As pollsters race to gather data on how Harris’ candidacy is changing — or not changing — the race, one of the biggest unanswered questions for both parties is whether Americans will carry over their well-documented frustration with Biden years from now. of high inflation and high interest. fees, direct to Harris.

These findings suggest that the political drag of “Bidenomics” has so far not rubbed off on Harris — at least not among young people.

In 2020, for example, Biden won 18- to 29-year-old voters by a margin of 24 percentage points, with 59% of the vote to Trump’s 35%.

And while young people have long made up a crucial constituency for Democratic candidates, this year, depending on which states Kennedy appears on the ballot, the embattled anti-vaccine independent may still be able to wrest enough votes from Harris to land the generally. the borders.

Turnout is also a potential sticking point for Democrats. Eighteen to 34-year-olds make up roughly a quarter of the total U.S. population, or about 76 million people, according to Census data. During the last presidential election in 2020, 57% of this age group turned out to vote.

In this survey, 77% of respondents said they will either definitely or probably vote. But in past elections, the number of people who say they plan to vote is usually much higher than those who actually do.

Finally, as is always the case in elections, the economy itself could hurt or help Harris, depending on where he goes.

For example, this survey was conducted between July 22 and July 29, before the latest jobs report showed a contraction, fueling renewed fears of an economic recession.

It was also taken ahead of last week’s market sell-off, which was partly triggered by fears stemming from the jobs report.

Meanwhile, most polls that sample all adults, not just young people, still show Trump holding the edge when it comes to which candidate voters trust most to improve the economy.

Any more bad economic news between now and November could cause voters to blame Harris — who has yet to fully articulate an economic agenda different from Biden’s — and turn to the perceived safety of the agenda. Trump’s well-known economic

The poll polled 1,043 adults aged 18 to 34, with a margin of error of 3.0%.